Belgian private security sector #9: Historical facts (3/3)

This ninth chapter focusses on historical drivers (3/3).  We will focus on the third step, according to Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »:

What are the causes of these changes? Which category do they belong to? Is there a leading category?  Can we deduct a pattern?

This series of publications are extracted from my final paper written within the frame of university certificate on foresight (UCL – Sept 2018)

historical-facts-3-of-3-of-Belgian-Private-Security-Sector-300x300 Private Security Sector: historical facts (3/3)

Causes of changes - Categories

The third step is to identify the causes of these changes or historical drivers.

Historical drivers can be classified into 4 categories

Scientific or technological advancements

scientific-progress-150x150 Private Security Sector: historical facts (3/3)

Discoveries or tools that have resulted in significant change

Conflict or competition

Political or ideological battles, between states and/or citizens, competition between companies leading to a change in marketing dynamics

conflict-150x150 Private Security Sector: historical facts (3/3)

New ideas and values

philosophy-300x169 Private Security Sector: historical facts (3/3)

New ideas, philosophies, or concepts that drive and shape change


Natural disasters, accidents, crises or any other unpredictable event triggering changes in values and attitudes, policies or market structure

9-11-unpredictable-event-236x300 Private Security Sector: historical facts (3/3)

Are some drivers dominant, do most of them belong to the same category?

Are we witnessing an established and repetitive or random pattern?

Causes of changes – Application to the security sector



Scientific or technological advancements


Use of oil


Electric Lighting

Use of social networks

Conflict or competition

Proliferation in the "guarding" sector

Prevailing conflicts in the world

War of (dis-) information

New ideas and values



Expansion of commercial and industrial sites

New forms of crime

Indoctrination via social networks

Loss of confidence in the police (2)

Predominant sense of insecurity (3)

Bad reputation of private security (2)

Radicalization in prison

Appearance of lone wolves

" Returnees "


Emergence of dictatorships

Threats and aggressions towards neighboring countries

Rise of Fascism

Rise of terrorism

Rise of radical Islamism

ð Various and multiple extremes (3)

(Cyber)terrorist acts

Other (economic and political)

Economic downturn

Change in threat level

Increasing threat level of nuclear power plants

Fiscal austerity

Need for the Public Service to Refocus on its Core Business

Assignment of public tasks to the private sector

With regard to the predominant feeling of insecurity, we refer to Thomas’ theorem: « the behavior of individuals can be explained, not by the reality they are confronted with, but by their perception of it. « If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences »**.

Sources, Useful links & Resources

* Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »

** François Bourse

Executive Master in Foresight – UCL – 2018