This ninth chapter focusses on historical drivers (3/3). We will focus on the third step, according to Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »:
What are the causes of these changes? Which category do they belong to? Is there a leading category? Can we deduct a pattern?
This series of publications are extracted from my final paper written within the frame of university certificate on foresight (UCL – Sept 2018)
The third step is to identify the causes of these changes or historical drivers.
Historical drivers can be classified into 4 categories
Discoveries or tools that have resulted in significant change
Political or ideological battles, between states and/or citizens, competition between companies leading to a change in marketing dynamics
New ideas, philosophies, or concepts that drive and shape change
Natural disasters, accidents, crises or any other unpredictable event triggering changes in values and attitudes, policies or market structure
Are some drivers dominant, do most of them belong to the same category?
Are we witnessing an established and repetitive or random pattern?
Scientific or technological advancements
Use of oil
Use of social networks
Conflict or competition
Proliferation in the "guarding" sector
Prevailing conflicts in the world
War of (dis-) information
New ideas and values
Expansion of commercial and industrial sites
New forms of crime
Indoctrination via social networks
Loss of confidence in the police (2)
Predominant sense of insecurity (3)
Bad reputation of private security (2)
Radicalization in prison
Appearance of lone wolves
" Returnees "
Emergence of dictatorships
Threats and aggressions towards neighboring countries
Rise of Fascism
Rise of terrorism
Rise of radical Islamism
ð Various and multiple extremes (3)
Other (economic and political)
Change in threat level
Increasing threat level of nuclear power plants
Need for the Public Service to Refocus on its Core Business
Assignment of public tasks to the private sector
With regard to the predominant feeling of insecurity, we refer to Thomas’ theorem: « the behavior of individuals can be explained, not by the reality they are confronted with, but by their perception of it. « If men define situations as real, they are real in their consequences »**.
Sources, Useful links & Resources
* Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »
** François Bourse
Executive Master in Foresight – UCL – 2018