Belgian private security sector #8: Historical facts (2/3)
This eighth chapter focusses on historical drivers (2/3). We will focus on the second step, according to Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »:
What happened in the past? Do we witness evolution or revolution in changes? How can we categorize those different changes?
This series of publications are extracted from my final paper written within the frame of university certificate on foresight (UCL – Sept 2018)
Changes identification - Definitions
The second step is to identify changes within the sector or community. Are milestones the result of abrupt changes or the natural result of longer-term evolution?
Practical life
By “practical life”, the author understands the rhythm of daily life and the experiences commonly accepted by individuals. We will find here daily practices and procedures, trends – even ephemeral ones, political opinions, …
System
By “system”, the author means longer-term structural changes: institutions, regulations and even infrastructures that shape and/or restrict daily life (information technology systems, structure of government agencies, laws, …).
Values
By “values”, the author means the views that citizens have about the world, the ways in which groups, communities and societies interpret the world around them, the commonly accepted ideas. It includes all extreme tendencies (“isms”), dominant economic theories, the pursuit of a balanced private/work life. We will therefore complete the title with “public opinions” to avoid any confusion
Changes identification – Application to the security sector
Period | Before 1934 | 1934 - 1990 | 1990-2017 |
|---|---|---|---|
Practical life | Mechanization and use of oil contribute to the Golden Twenties Cars, electric lighting and other facilities are consumed without moderation | Consumerism Urbanisation | Soldiers in the streets (Cyber) Terrorist acts (Dis-) information warfare Change in threat level Increasing threat level of nuclear power plants Social network indoctrination Departures for Syria |
System | Economic downturn Emergence of dictatorships | Expansion of commercial & industrial sites State austerity policy | Austerity for the government Cut budgets Need for the public service to refocus on its "core business" Assignment of public tasks to the private sector New forms of attacks - and new types of security - (cyber) Public Private Partnership (PPP) and partnership between states desired New Issues:
|
Values («public opinions » meaning) | Rise of Fascism (DE - IT) Threats and aggression against neighbouring countries Sense of insecurity | Rise of terrorism Loss of confidence in the police Sense of insecurity Bad reputation of private security | Rise of radical Islamism Loss of confidence in the police Sense of insecurity Bad reputation of private security |
Sources, Useful links & Resources
Richard A. K. Lum, « 4 steps to the future »
Executive Master in Foresight – UCL – 2018